CSIS Analysis Warns: U.S. Could Slide Toward Civil War If Social Fragmentation Persists

MCAA-News

In their recent article for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), political scientists Dr. Benjamin Jensen — a senior fellow at CSIS and professor of strategic studies at the Marine Corps University — and Dr. Joseph K. Young, a professor at American University specializing in political violence, issue a restrained but serious warning about America’s internal stability.

Their essay, “Is the United States Headed Toward a Civil War?” stops short of predicting an immediate, organized conflict, yet its logic clearly implies that the United States could move in that direction if current social and political trends continue. Jensen and Young describe a nation increasingly torn by polarization, distrust in institutions, and cycles of politically motivated violence carried out by lone gunmen radicalized through social media.

They argue that the greatest threat is not a traditional civil war but a pattern of “tit-for-tat” sporadic violence that could metastasize into broader unrest. In policy language, their recommendation to “rebuild civic trust” before a “legitimacy crisis” unfolds is an implicit warning: unless polarization and violence are contained, the U.S. may face a slow-motion path toward internal war.